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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
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Posted - 2012.04.26 11:25:00 -
[1] - Quote
Equilibrium Mineral Prices
I published this several years ago, so long ago that nobody remembers it. Due to a recent thread, I figure is probably a good time to revisit this topic.
[1] This solution assumes that miners will maximize their income by mining the best ore available. As a guide I created an ore income table to help miners determine their best choice of ore.
http://www.bsacse.amxg4.com/ore.php
At equilibrium, supply must equal demand. No assumptions there, as that is the very definition of equilibrium. Solving the demand side is too complicated as we have thousands of items. However, the supply side is fairly easy to solve given [1]. By equating the ore income we can find that:
[a] price_of_Pyerite = price_of_Tritanium * 667/416
[b] price_of_Mexallon = price_of_Tritanium * 7,875/832
[c] price_of_Isogen = price_of_Tritanium * 392,717,417/14,176,032
[d] price_of_Nocxium = price_of_Tritanium * 385,043/4,576
Equilibrium_Hourly_Income = Mining_Rate * price_of_Tritanium * 600,000/333
These numbers are a bulk park and should be used with caution. Patches and ccp changes can affect the outcome. How long will it take for markets to reach equilibrium is another story.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
71
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Posted - 2012.04.26 12:43:00 -
[2] - Quote
Tekota wrote:edit: nevermind, correct me if I'm wrong but I think, from digging up http://community.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=448254&page=1 - that your ratios are based on veld, scord, plag and omber with kernite and pyrox assumed to break free in one direction or another (going to guess in 2007 kernite and/or pyrox were the fruity looking ores) wheras mine worked off veld, scord, plag, pyrox and kernite with omber left to dangle. Which I think explains why we've got near identical results on trit/pye/mex but a difference on iso.
My results are based on high-sec ores; Vel, Scor, Plag, Omber, and Pyro. Isogen was derived from:
Income_Veldspar = Income_Omber
Right now, there is no incentive to mine Kernite, when Pyro and Veldspar yield a much higer income.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
71
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Posted - 2012.04.26 13:27:00 -
[3] - Quote
The reason I chose Omber over Kernite is that Omber has a better Isogen yield than Kernite. If Isogen were to spike, Omber will be the ore to mine.
@Caleb Ayrania
The values used came from ore's refining yileds (Ri), batch size (B), and unit volume (V).
The ore income (I) is given by:
I = M * B * Sum(Ri*Pi) / V,
where M is the mining rate, Ri is the refining yield of mineral i, and Pi is the price of mineral i.
Notice that when you equate income, the mining rate (M) drops from the equation.
For example Veldspar yield 1000 units of Tritanium (R1) per batch, Scordite yields 833 Tritanium (R1) and 416 Pyerite (R2) per batch. By equating the ore income you get the following equation:
333 * 1000 * price_Tritanium / 0.1 = 333 * (833 * price_Tritanium + 416 * price_Pyerite) / 0.15
solving for price_Pyerite gives :
price_Pyerite = price_of_Tritanium * 667/416
You can get the rest of the values by equating income from Plagio, Omber, and Pyro to Veldsvar.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
71
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Posted - 2012.04.26 18:30:00 -
[4] - Quote
VaMei wrote:The problem with assuming that isk/M3 of all hi-sec ore (excepting either Kernite or Omber) will balance out is that the supply basket will not match the demand basket.
By definiton, in equilibrium, supply = demand.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
74
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Posted - 2012.06.13 02:14:00 -
[5] - Quote
Off all the minerals, Isogen seems to be way off equilibrium price. This suggests that there must be a source of cheap Isogen (Recyclable or loot) OR miners are fooled by omber's high price.
"Omber sells for 112 while veldspar sells for 19, so lets mine omber"
What do you think?
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
74
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Posted - 2012.06.13 02:38:00 -
[6] - Quote
corestwo wrote:
That you just bought a large stack of Isogen and are trying to use your reputation as a knowledgeable mineral baron to get other people to buy.
Fair point. However, I wouldn't recommend people to stock pile at 80. If it hits 60, I say stock pile.
Veldspar and scordite yiled about 185 ISK/m3, while omber yields 93 ISK/m3. Don't you find it odd that people still mine omber when they could more than double their income mining veldspar?
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
75
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Posted - 2012.06.28 14:42:00 -
[7] - Quote
ItGÇÖs interesting to see Scordite as profitable as Bistot.
Is high sec mining more profitable than null sec mining? (Accounting for fees and transportation time)
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
75
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Posted - 2012.07.06 21:36:00 -
[8] - Quote
People seem to forget.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
75
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Posted - 2012.07.31 17:51:00 -
[9] - Quote
According to the model Pyerite is overpriced and Isogen is underpriced.
IGÇÖve been working on a time dependent model but all I get is a price collapse at long times. Any predictions on how soon Pyerite turns around.
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